The big picture

Essendon are 2–21 in AFL 2026, averaging 69.6 points for and 107.7 against.

Geelong Cats are 16–9 in AFL 2026, averaging 102.7 points for and 84.8 against.

Form

Essendon have won zero of their last five and most recently lost to Port Adelaide 95–105.

Geelong Cats have won four of their last five and most recently lost to Fremantle 106–120.

Essendon have lost their last five.

Head to head

These sides have met 227 times on our records since 1897: Essendon 115, Geelong Cats 107, 5 drawn.

Last time out (2026, Round 22), Geelong Cats won 117–50 at GMHBA Stadium.

Geelong Cats have won the last ten against Essendon.

Biggest margin between these two: Geelong Cats by 116 points in 1934 (157–41).

Players to watch

For Essendon, watch Archie Roberts (28.1 disposals a game, 2 goals in 2026) and Zach Merrett (27.3 disposals a game, 10 goals in 2026).

For Geelong Cats, watch Bailey Smith (32.3 disposals a game, 11 goals in 2026) and Max Holmes (28 disposals a game, 5 goals in 2026).

Milestone watch

Nate Caddy is set to play game 50.

At MCG

Geelong Cats have won 8 of 11 at MCG.

Essendon have won 1 of their last 13 at MCG.

The deeper numbers

Essendon's greatest comeback: 41 points down at three-quarter time against Melbourne in 1992, and they won. Only 5 sides in 130 years of VFL/AFL have won from 41+ down at the last change.

Essendon have lost their last 12 at MCG and haven't won there since 2025 (against Richmond).

Geelong Cats' greatest comeback: 38 points down at three-quarter time against Melbourne in 1936, and they won. Only 15 sides in 130 years of VFL/AFL have won from 38+ down at the last change.

Jeremy Cameron needs 2 goals to pass Kevin Bartlett (778) for 15th on the VFL/AFL all-time goalkicking list.

What the numbers say

On form and history, Geelong Cats have the edge.