The big picture

Hawthorn are 16–7–2 in AFL 2026, averaging 98.2 points for and 82.1 against.

Carlton are 13–11–1 in AFL 2026, averaging 86.2 points for and 85.6 against.

Form

Hawthorn have won two of their last five and most recently lost to Brisbane Lions 122–131.

Carlton have won three of their last five and most recently lost to Geelong Cats 74–107.

Head to head

These sides have met 175 times on our records since 1925: Hawthorn 69, Carlton 106.

Last time out (2026, Round 18), Hawthorn won 103–39 at MCG.

Hawthorn have won the last four against Carlton.

Biggest margin between these two: Hawthorn by 138 points in 2015 (173–35).

Players to watch

For Hawthorn, watch Jai Newcombe (25.5 disposals a game, 8 goals in 2026) and Josh Ward (22.5 disposals a game, 6 goals in 2026).

For Carlton, watch Sam Walsh (29.1 disposals a game, 8 goals in 2026) and Patrick Cripps (26.2 disposals a game, 16 goals in 2026).

At MCG

Hawthorn have won 10 of their last 17 at MCG.

Carlton have won 9 of 17 at MCG.

What the numbers say

On the numbers this is too close to split.